The drawing for the office Super Bowl pool was this afternoon and I came away with two lousy squares. I have Colts 2 / Saints 6 and Colts 4 / Saints 5.
That got me to wondering which numbers had the best odds and, as always, the Internet had the answer at hand. Someone compiled the data on all the NFL games since 1994 and determined the odds of each final score.
My two boxes are definitely bad at 0.35% and 0.50%, respectively. I shouldn’t complain though. The guy with 2/2 is looking at only a 0.04% chance of winning.
Not surprisingly, 0/7 has the best odds at 3.8%.
I can always hope for a shoot out with the Colts scoring 42 on 6 touchdowns the the Saints scoring 36 with 5 touchdowns and a two point conversion. With these two teams it’s not that far-fetched.
UPDATE: This data is much better. It shows, in percentage terms, the frequency of score at the end of each quarter for every Super Bowl.